Could TikTok Be Banned... Today?

What we know right now:

• TikTok will be banned this Sunday, January 19th if it doesn't demonstrate a willingness to divest from ByteDance, it’s Chinese-owned parent company… Unless the Supreme Court agrees with TikTok that its previous ruling infringes on freedom of speech.
• The justices pushed back on TikTok's stance that its ban infringes on freedom of speech, pointing out that a constitutional right doesn’t impact foreign-owned entities.
• The Supreme Court could rule as early as today.

It's not looking like a happy-New-Year for TikTok.

The Supreme Court heard oral arguments related to TikTok's ban—and whether it infringes on the First Amendment right—on January 10, 2025, and could rule as early as today.

Here's what you need to know about the status of the ruling, and what could happen if the ban takes effect.

But first… How'd we get here?

Ahem. Let's start with some context: The “Protecting Americans from Foreign Adversary Controlled Applications Act” was signed into law in April 2024.

The name is a mouthful, but the ruling would prohibit U.S. app stores, as well as web-hosting services, from offering TikTok.

In other words: TikTok would be banned nationwide. (Cue despairing Gen Zers everywhere.)

So what does the Supreme Court want from TikTok?

For TikTok's parent company, ByteDance, to divest its U.S. operations by, well, this Sunday (January 19th) — due to national security concerns over its Chinese ownership and data practices.

The Arguments: TikTok's Side

During Friday's oral arguments, TikTok's attorney, Noel Francisco, argued that the ban violates the First Amendment.

As he puts it, “If the First Amendment means anything, it means the government cannot restrict speech in order to protect us from speech.”

He added, "The government has no valid interest in preventing foreign propaganda… The government's real target, rather, is the speech itself, its fear that Americans, even if fully informed, could be persuaded by Chinese misinformation. That, however, is a decision that the First Amendment leaves to the people."

Francisco concluded: “[The ban] is also grossly under-inclusive and ignores the most obvious less restrictive alternative: simply banning TikTok, Incorporated, from sharing any sensitive user data with anyone.”

Beyond TikTok's argument that the ban violates freedom of speech, Francisco underlined a few other key points:

• One: They say there is no documented evidence of the Chinese government accessing user data.
• And two: The imposed timeframe is too tight for TikTok to feasibly separate from ByteDance.

The Rebuttals from the Supreme Court

On Friday, justices seemed skeptical of TikTok's arguments and questioned how First Amendment rights are being implicated when the law specifically targets a foreign-owned company. (Touche).

As Chief Justice John Roberts put it: “Congress is fine with the [freedom of] expression. They’re not fine with a foreign adversary, as they’ve determined it is, gathering all this information about the 170 million people who use TikTok.”

In other words: The justices are fine with us embarrassing ourselves with TikTok dances, mastering the art of whipped coffee, and endlessly scrolling for that one 'life-changing’ pasta recipe.

What they're not fine with is the Chinese government peeking at our data while we do it.

Roberts continued to point out that Congress previously found ByteDance to be “subject to Chinese laws that require it to assist or cooperate with the Chinese government's intelligence work.”

Justice Elena Kagan also drew a parallel to the concerns over the Soviet Union in the 20th century, stating: “If Congress had said, 'Well, it's very nice, we can have the Communist Party U.S.A, but it has to divest, it has to completely divorce itself from the Comintern and from any international ties that it has,' do you think that that would have been absolutely fine?”

Can Trump undo the TikTok ban?

On Truth Social, Trump recently asked, “Why would I get rid of TikTok?” with a graphic displaying his 36 billion views of #trump and 24 million average views per post on @realdonaldtrump.

Many are of the mindset that Trump can undo the ban if it takes effect.

To my knowledge, here's what he could do:

• He can pause the ban for 90 days if TikTok demonstrates that it is in the process of separating from ByteDance (though without actual evidence of its divestment, this could be challenged in court).
• Trump could declare TikTok is in compliance with the law, but this could still be challenged in Court if ByteDance doesn't divest.
• He can try to negotiate a deal to sell TikTok to a U.S. company, but only if ByteDance is willing to sell—which, so far, it isn't.

Beyond that, there isn't much he can do if the Supreme Court doesn’t repeal the notion on its own.

What happens if TikTok is banned?

First off, it's important to note that if the Supreme Court does rule to ban TikTok from app stores and web-hosting services, people can still continue to use TikTok if they already have it.

Although, without legitimate means of accessing the app, it would be impossible to access TikTok updates, which would eventually make the app unusable.

(And also, there's the not-so-small problem of app updates typically being helpful for security measures. Without regular updates, your TikTok will become increasingly susceptible to hackers. Yikes.)

There are other ways to access the app, as well — for instance, a VPN (virtual private network), or changing your phone's region so you can access the app as if you were in another country.

But these efforts are short-lived and risky. Eventually, the 170 million users who currently use TikTok will need to move to alternative platforms – especially since TikTok's legal team has said if the ban takes effect, TikTok will “go dark”.

What does it all mean for marketers?

More than likely, the misplaced TikTokers will turn to Instagram Reels or YouTube Shorts, which both mimic similar user behavior.

Additionally, if you leverage TikTok's advertising tools, you would need to shift your ad strategy to YouTube or Instagram.

Short-form videos aren't going away, but TikTok might. If that’s the case, it's still critical your team focuses on how you can invest in short-term vids on other platforms.

And, while change can be scary, it's important to remember – we'll all be okay. 

As Leanne Elliott, co-host of the Truth, Lies and Work podcast, told me: "When it comes to platforms like TikTok, it’s important to remember that people and communities are far more resilient than the apps they use. Platforms come and go. Just think of MySpace, Vine, or even the way Facebook isn’t quite what it once was."

She adds, "What stays constant is our need for connection and shared experiences. If TikTok disappears, creators and their audiences will move on together. The relationships don’t vanish, they just find a new home."

Her bet is that, if TikTok were to disappear tomorrow, people would shift to YouTube Shorts, Instagram, and (drum roll, please...) LinkedIn. 

As Elliott points out, "[LinkedIn's] crying out for fresh, creative content, especially for those looking to build a professional edge. Over the next few years, LinkedIn could become a real hot spot for B2B creators who get in now."

It's also important to remember that TikTok has never been a major lead-driver for most businesses. So, while it can be fun to hop aboard the 'Tok trends, your business likely won't suffer too greatly from the ban. 

As Louis 'Fonzi' Camejo, host of the Content is Profit podcast, told me: "I personally don’t mind the ban in terms of marketing. TikTok is not a channel that has added to our listenership so we haven’t invested time or resources in it. We noticed that even though some clips have good reach, there wasn't too much interest from the user to move off platform." 

We'll update this post as more information comes our way but for now… We wait.

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